Quantifying Sustained Pain Worsening in Knee Osteoarthritis

Objective: Recent work suggests that many persons with knee osteoarthritis (OA) experience stable symptoms over time. Whether patients experience periods of symptom exacerbation or flare which interrupt this stable course, and how long such periods last, has received little study. Our objective is to describe the frequency and duration of episodes of pain worsening in persons with knee OA.

Methods: We selected participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative with radiographic, symptomatic knee OA. We defined a clinically relevant increase in knee pain as an increase in Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain of ≥9 points. We defined sustained worsening as maintaining at least 80% of the initial increase. We used Poisson regression to estimate the incidence rate (IR) of episodes of pain worsening.

Results: 1093 participants were included in the analysis. Eighty-eight percent had ≥1 increase in WOMAC pain ≥9 points (IR: 26.3 per 100 person years (95% CI: 25.2, 27.4)). Forty-eight percent had ≥1 episode of sustained worsening (IR: 9.7 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 8.9, 10.5)). Elevated pain was maintained an average of 2.4 years after the initial increase.

Conclusion: Most participants with knee OA reported at least one clinically relevant increase in WOMAC pain, but fewer than half experienced an episode of sustained pain worsening. These individual-level data portray a more nuanced and fluctuating course of OA pain than suggested by trajectory studies. These data could be useful in shared decision-making regarding prognosis and treatment choices in persons affected by symptomatic knee OA.