A Model to Predict Treatment Failure in Patients Undergoing Upfront Surgery for Resectable Colorectal Liver Metastases

Introduction: Patients who recur in the first year after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) do poorly. The aim of our study was to predict treatment failure in patients undergoing upfront resection with a nomogram.

Methods: Data from patients resected between 1991 and 2019 were randomly split (70:30) into two cohorts. Treatment failure was defined as any recurrence or death within 12 months. A nomogram was constructed using multivariable logistic regression on the training cohort and validated using the testing cohort.

Results: Overall, 783 patients were included. Primary tumor characteristics included 50% left-sided: 75.2% T3/4 and 56.5% node-positive. The median disease-free interval was 10 months, median number of metastases was 1 (1-50), and with a median size of 3.6 cm (0.2-22); 222 (28.3%) patients recurred within 1 year. Recurrence was mostly extrahepatic with or without liver involvement (150/222, 67.6%). Curative-intent treatment was possible in 37.8% of these patients. Primary location, T-stage and node status, disease-free interval, and number and size of metastases were associated with treatment failure. The area under the curve from the validation of the model was 0.6 (95% confidence interval 0.52-0.68). Patients with a high-risk of treatment failure (≥40%) had a worse survival from the landmark time of 12 months from surgery compared with those with low-risk (2-years: 82% vs. 70%; p = 0.0002).

Conclusions: Primary location, T stage, node status, disease-free interval, and number and size of metastases are associated with treatment failure. The survival of patients with a probability of treatment failure ≥40% is unfavorable. Future trials investigating the role of neoadjuvant therapy in these high-risk patients are warranted.