New Insights into a Microvascular Invasion Prediction Model in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Retrospective Study from the SEER Database and China

Background And Aims: The prognosis of liver cancer is strongly influenced by microvascular infiltration (MVI). Accurate preoperative MVI prediction can aid clinicians in the selection of suitable treatment options. In this study, we constructed a novel, reliable, and adaptable nomogram for predicting MVI.

Methods: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, we extracted the clinical data of 1,063 patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and divided it into either a training ( = 739) or an internal validation cohort ( = 326). Based on multivariate analysis, the training cohort data were analyzed and a nomogram was generated for MVI prediction. This was further verified using an internal validation cohort and an external validation cohort involving 293 Chinese patients. Furthermore, to evaluate the efficacy, accuracy, and clinical use of the nomogram, we used concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) techniques.

Results: In accordance with the multivariate analysis, tumor size, tumor number, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and histological grade were independently associated with MVI. The established model exhibited satisfactory performance in predicting MVI. The C-indices were 0.719, 0.704, and 0.718 in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves showed an excellent consistency between the predictions and actual observations. Finally, DCA demonstrated that the newly developed nomogram had favorable clinical utility.

Conclusions: We established and verified a novel preoperative MVI prediction model in HCC patients. This model can be a beneficial tool for clinicians in selecting an optimal treatment plan for HCC patients.