Specific Polysubstance Use Patterns Predict Relapse Among Patients Entering Opioid Use Disorder Treatment

Introduction: While polysubstance use has consistently been associated with higher rates of relapse, few studies have examined subgroups with specific combinations and time course of polysubstance use (i.e., polysubstance use patterns). This study aimed to classify and compare polysubstance use patterns, and their associations with relapse to regular opioid use in 2637 participants in three large opioid use disorder (OUD) treatment trials.

Methods: We explored the daily patterns of self-reported substance use in the 28 days prior to treatment entry. Market basket analysis (MBA) and repeated measure latent class analysis (RMLCA) were used to examine the subgroups of polysubstance use patterns, and multiple logistic regression was used to examine associations between identified classes and relapse.

Results: MBA and RMLCA identified 34 "associations rules " and 6 classes, respectively. Specific combinations of polysubstance use and time course (high baseline use and rapid decrease of use prior to initiation) predicts a worse relapse outcome. MBA showed individuals who co-used cocaine, heroin, prescription opioids, and cannabis had a higher risk for relapse (OR = 2.82, 95%CI = 1.13, 7.03). In RMLCA, higher risk of relapse was observed in individuals who presented with high baseline prescription opioid (OR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.3, 2.76) or heroin use (OR = 3.54, 95%CI = 1.86, 6.72), although use decreased in both cases prior to treatment initiation.

Conclusions: Our analyses identified subgroups with distinct patterns of polysubstance use. Different patterns of polysubstance use differentially predict relapse outcomes. Interventions tailored to these individuals with specific polysubstance use patterns prior to treatment initiation may increase the effectiveness of relapse prevention.