Machine Learning to Analyse Omic-data for COVID-19 Diagnosis and Prognosis

Background: With the global spread of COVID-19, the world has seen many patients, including many severe cases. The rapid development of machine learning (ML) has made significant disease diagnosis and prediction achievements. Current studies have confirmed that omics data at the host level can reflect the development process and prognosis of the disease. Since early diagnosis and effective treatment of severe COVID-19 patients remains challenging, this research aims to use omics data in different ML models for COVID-19 diagnosis and prognosis. We used several ML models on omics data of a large number of individuals to first predict whether patients are COVID-19 positive or negative, followed by the severity of the disease.

Results: On the COVID-19 diagnosis task, we got the best AUC of 0.99 with our multilayer perceptron model and the highest F1-score of 0.95 with our logistic regression (LR) model. For the severity prediction task, we achieved the highest accuracy of 0.76 with an LR model. Beyond classification and predictive modeling, our study founds ML models performed better on integrated multi-omics data, rather than single omics. By comparing top features from different omics dataset, we also found the robustness of our model, with a wider range of applicability in diverse dataset related to COVID-19. Additionally, we have found that omics-based models performed better than image or physiological feature-based models, proving the importance of the omics-based dataset for future model development.

Conclusions: This study diagnoses COVID-19 positive cases and predicts accurate severity levels. It lowers the dependence on clinical data and professional judgment, by leveraging the utilization of state-of-the-art models. our model showed wider applicability across different omics dataset, which is highly transferable in other respiratory or similar diseases. Hospital and public health care mechanisms can optimize the distribution of medical resources and improve the robustness of the medical system.