COVID-19 and Food Security: Panel Data Evidence from Nigeria

This paper combines pre-pandemic face-to-face survey data with follow up phone surveys collected in April-May 2020 to examine the implication of the COVID-19 pandemic on household food security and labor market participation outcomes in Nigeria. To examine these relationships and implications, we exploit spatial variation in exposure to COVID-19 related infections and lockdown measures, along with temporal differences in our outcomes of interest, using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that households exposed to higher COVID-19 case rates or mobility lockdowns experience a significant increase in measures of food insecurity. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that the spread of the pandemic is associated with significant reductions in labor market participation. For instance, lockdown measures are associated with 6-15 percentage points increase in households' experience of food insecurity. Similarly, lockdown measures are associated with 12 percentage points reduction in the probability of participation in non-farm business activities. These lockdown measures have limited implications on wage-related activities and farming activities. In terms of food security, households relying on non-farm businesses, poorer households, and those living in remote and conflicted-affected zones have experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food security. These findings can help inform immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies aiming at ameliorating the impacts of the pandemic.