Albumin-Bilirubin Grade As a Novel Predictor of the Development and Short-Term Survival of Post-Banding Ulcer Bleeding Following Endoscopic Variceal Ligation in Cirrhotic Patients

Background and Objectives: Endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) is the primary and secondary treatment for acute esophageal variceal bleeding. Post-banding ulcer bleeding (PBUB) may lead to bleeding episodes following EVL, increasing mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors for PBUB and predict the 6-week mortality risk after PBUB. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the data collected from cirrhotic patients with EVL from 2015 to 2017. The incidence of PBUB and the 6-week mortality rate were evaluated. Risk factors for PBUB and predictive factors for mortality after PBUB were analyzed. Results: A total of 713 patients were enrolled in this study. Among the studied subjects, the incidence of PBUB was 5.8% (N = 41). The 6-week mortality rate was 63.4% (26/41). In multivariate analysis, MELD score ≥20 (OR: 3.77, 95% CI: 1.94−7.33, p < 0.001), ALBI score of 3 (OR: 2.67, 95% CI: 1.34−5.3, p = 0.005) and the presence of gastric varices (OR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.06−4.16, p = 0.03) were associated with the development of PBUB. Patients with ALBI grade 3 (OR: 4.8, 95% CI: 1.18−19.6, p = 0.029) and Child-Pugh scores B and C (OR: 16.67, 95% CI: 1.75−158.1, p = 0.014) were associated with 6-week mortality after PBUB. Conclusions: PBUB is a complication with low incidence but increased mortality following EVL. The ALBI grade is a useful score to predict not only the development of PBUB but also the 6-week mortality after PBUB.