Correlation Between ADC Histogram-Derived Metrics and the Time to Metastases in Resectable Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

Background: A non-invasive method to improve the prognostic stratification would be clinically beneficial in patients with resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The aim of this study was to correlate conventional magnetic resonance (MR) features and the metrics derived from the histogram analysis of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps, with the risk and the time to metastases (TTM) after surgery in patients with PDAC. Methods: pre-operative MR examinations of 120 patients were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were grouped according to the presence (M+) or absence (M−) of metastases during follow-up. Conventional MR features and histogram-derived metrics were compared between M+ and M− patients using the Fisher’s or Mann−Whitney tests; receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for the features that showed a significant difference between groups. A Cox regression analysis was performed to identify the features with a significant effect on the TTM, and Kaplan−Meier curves were constructed for significant features. Results: 68.3% patients developed metastases over a mean follow-up time of 29 months (range, 3−54 months). ADC skewness and kurtosis were significantly higher in M+ than in M− patients (p < 0.001). Skewness had a significant effect on the risk of metastases (hazard ratio—HR = 5.22, p < 0.001). Patients with an ADC skewness ≥0.23 had a significantly shorter TTM than those with a skewness <0.22 (11.7 vs. 30.8 months, p < 0.001). Conclusions: pre-operative histogram analysis of ADC maps provides parameters correlated to the metastatic potential of PDAC. Higher ADC skewness seems to be associated with a significantly shorter TTM in patients with resectable PDAC.