A Comparative Study of Antihypertensive Drugs Prediction Models for the Elderly Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Background: Globally, blood pressure management strategies were ineffective, and a low percentage of patients receiving hypertension treatment had their blood pressure controlled. In this study, we aimed to build a medication prediction model by correlating patient attributes with medications to help physicians quickly and rationally match appropriate medications.

Methods: We collected clinical data from elderly hypertensive patients during hospitalization and combined statistical methods and machine learning (ML) algorithms to filter out typical indicators. We constructed five ML models to evaluate all datasets using 5-fold cross-validation. Include random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), artificial neural network (ANN), and naive Bayes (NB) models. And the performance of the models was evaluated using the micro-F1 score.

Results: Our experiments showed that by statistical methods and ML algorithms for feature selection, we finally selected Age, SBP, DBP, Lymph, RBC, HCT, MCHC, PLT, AST, TBIL, Cr, UA, Urea, K, Na, Ga, TP, GLU, TC, TG, γ-GT, Gender, HTN CAD, and RI as feature metrics of the models. LightGBM had the best prediction performance with the micro-F1 of 78.45%, which was higher than the other four models.

Conclusion: LightGBM model has good results in predicting antihypertensive medication regimens, and the model can be beneficial in improving the personalization of hypertension treatment.