Bayesian Spatio-temporal Modelling and Mapping of Malaria and Anaemia Among Children Between 0 and 59 months in Nigeria

Overview

Journal Malar J

Publisher Biomed Central

Specialty Tropical Medicine

Date 2022 Nov 2

PMID 36320061

Authors

Jecinta U Ibeji

Henry Mwambi

Abdul-Karim Iddrisu

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background/m&m: A vital aspect of disease management and policy making lies in the understanding of the universal distribution of diseases. Nevertheless, due to differences all-over host groups and space-time outbreak activities, data are subject to intricacies. Herein, Bayesian spatio-temporal models were proposed to model and map malaria and anaemia risk ratio in space and time as well as to ascertain risk factors related to these diseases and the most endemic states in Nigeria. Parameter estimation was performed by employing the R-integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) package and Deviance Information Criteria were applied to select the best model.

Results: In malaria, model 7 which basically suggests that previous trend of an event cannot account for future trend i.e., Interaction with one random time effect (random walk) has the least deviance. On the other hand, model 6 assumes that previous event can be used to predict future event i.e., (Interaction with one random time effect (ar1)) gave the least deviance in anaemia.

Discussion: For malaria and anaemia, models 7 and 6 were selected to model and map these diseases in Nigeria, because these models have the capacity to receive strength from adjacent states, in a manner that neighbouring states have the same risk. Changes in risk and clustering with a high record of these diseases among states in Nigeria was observed. However, despite these changes, the total risk of malaria and anaemia for 2010 and 2015 was unaffected.

Conclusion: Notwithstanding the methods applied, this study will be valuable to the advancement of a spatio-temporal approach for analyzing malaria and anaemia risk in Nigeria.

Citing Articles

Interactive and lag effects of environmental factors on the density of schistosome-transmitting Oncomelania hupensis: A twelve-year monthly repeated survey.

Wang J, Huang J, Gong Y, Xu N, Zhou Y, Zhu L Parasitol Res. 2024; 123(8):301.

PMID: 39150558 DOI: 10.1007/s00436-024-08323-w.

Optimizing spatio-temporal correlation structures for modeling food security in Africa: a simulation-based investigation.

Bofa A, Zewotir T BMC Bioinformatics. 2024; 25(1):168.

PMID: 38678218 PMC: 11056055. DOI: 10.1186/s12859-024-05791-w.

Modelling spatiotemporal patterns of visceral leishmaniasis incidence in two endemic states in India using environment, bioclimatic and demographic data, 2013-2022.

Subramanian S, Maheswari R, Prabavathy G, Khan M, Brindha B, Srividya A PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2024; 18(2):e0011946.

PMID: 38315725 PMC: 10868833. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011946.

Three Gorges Dam: Potential differential drivers and trend in the spatio-temporal evolution of the change in snail density based on a Bayesian spatial-temporal model and 5-year longitudinal study.

Gong Y, Tong Y, Jiang H, Xu N, Yin J, Wang J Parasit Vectors. 2023; 16(1):232.

PMID: 37452398 PMC: 10349508. DOI: 10.1186/s13071-023-05846-6.

References

White N . Anaemia and malaria. Malar J. 2018; 17(1):371. PMC: 6194647. DOI: 10.1186/s12936-018-2509-9. View

Ekvall H . Malaria and anemia. Curr Opin Hematol. 2003; 10(2):108-14. DOI: 10.1097/00062752-200303000-00002. View

Hailegebreal S, Nigatu A, Mekonnen Z, Endehabtu B . Spatio-temporal distribution and associated factors of anaemia among children aged 6-59 months in Ethiopia: a spatial and multilevel analysis based on the EDHS 2005-2016. BMJ Open. 2021; 11(8):e045544. PMC: 8372819. DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045544. View

Okunlola O, Oyeyemi O, Lukman A . Modeling the relationship between malaria prevalence and insecticide-treated bed net coverage in Nigeria using a Bayesian spatial generalized linear mixed model with a Leroux prior. Epidemiol Health. 2021; 43:e2021041. PMC: 8510838. DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2021041. View

Starck T, Bulstra C, Tinto H, Rouamba T, Sie A, Jaenisch T . The effect of malaria on haemoglobin concentrations: a nationally representative household fixed-effects study of 17,599 children under 5 years of age in Burkina Faso. Malar J. 2021; 20(1):416. PMC: 8542337. DOI: 10.1186/s12936-021-03948-z. View

Newton C, Warn P, Winstanley P, Peshu N, Snow R, Pasvol G . Severe anaemia in children living in a malaria endemic area of Kenya. Trop Med Int Health. 1997; 2(2):165-78. DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-3156.1997.d01-238.x. View

Rumisha S, Shayo E, Mboera L . Spatio-temporal prevalence of malaria and anaemia in relation to agro-ecosystems in Mvomero district, Tanzania. Malar J. 2019; 18(1):228. PMC: 6617584. DOI: 10.1186/s12936-019-2859-y. View

Schumacher R, Spinelli E . Malaria in children. Mediterr J Hematol Infect Dis. 2012; 4(1):e2012073. PMC: 3507524. DOI: 10.4084/MJHID.2012.073. View

Steketee R, Choi M, Linn A, Florey L, Murphy M, Panjabi R . World Malaria Day 2021: Commemorating 15 Years of Contribution by the United States President's Malaria Initiative. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2021; 104(6):1955-1959. PMC: 8176495. DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.21-0432. View

10.

Douglas N, Burkot T, Price R . Malaria eradication revisited. Int J Epidemiol. 2021; 51(2):382-392. DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyab259. View

11.

Jana S, Fu S, Gelband H, Brown P, Jha P . Spatio-temporal modelling of malaria mortality in India from 2004 to 2013 from the Million Death Study. Malar J. 2022; 21(1):90. PMC: 8932160. DOI: 10.1186/s12936-022-04112-x. View

12.

Knorr-Held L . Bayesian modelling of inseparable space-time variation in disease risk. Stat Med. 2000; 19(17-18):2555-67. DOI: 10.1002/1097-0258(20000915/30)19:17/18<2555::aid-sim587>3.0.co;2-#. View

13.

Mabaso M, Vounatsou P, Midzi S, da Silva J, Smith T . Spatio-temporal analysis of the role of climate in inter-annual variation of malaria incidence in Zimbabwe. Int J Health Geogr. 2006; 5:20. PMC: 1513195. DOI: 10.1186/1476-072X-5-20. View

14.

Clements A, Barnett A, Cheng Z, Snow R, Zhou H . Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China. Malar J. 2009; 8:180. PMC: 2724544. DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-8-180. View

15.

Rahi M, Das P, Sharma A . Malaria elimination in India requires additional surveillance mechanisms. J Public Health (Oxf). 2021; 44(3):527-531. DOI: 10.1093/pubmed/fdab106. View

16.

van den Elsen L, Verhasselt V, Egwang T . Malaria Antigen Shedding in the Breast Milk of Mothers From a Region With Endemic Malaria. JAMA Pediatr. 2020; 174(3):297-298. PMC: 6990713. DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2019.5209. View

17.

Kassebaum N . The Global Burden of Anemia. Hematol Oncol Clin North Am. 2016; 30(2):247-308. DOI: 10.1016/j.hoc.2015.11.002. View

18.

Okunlola O, Oyeyemi O . Spatio-temporal analysis of association between incidence of malaria and environmental predictors of malaria transmission in Nigeria. Sci Rep. 2019; 9(1):17500. PMC: 6877532. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-53814-x. View

19.

Roberts D, Matthews G, Snow R, Zewotir T, Sartorius B . Investigating the spatial variation and risk factors of childhood anaemia in four sub-Saharan African countries. BMC Public Health. 2020; 20(1):126. PMC: 6990548. DOI: 10.1186/s12889-020-8189-8. View

20.

Childs D, Cattadori I, Suwonkerd W, Prajakwong S, Boots M . Spatiotemporal patterns of malaria incidence in northern Thailand. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2006; 100(7):623-31. DOI: 10.1016/j.trstmh.2005.09.011. View