A Complete Blood Count-based Multivariate Model for Predicting the Recovery of Patients with Moderate COVID-19: a Retrospective Study

Many resource-limited countries need an efficient and convenient method to assess disease progression in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study developed and validated a complete blood count-based multivariate model for predicting the recovery of patients with moderate COVID-19. We collected the clinical data and laboratory test results of 86 patients with moderate COVID-19. These data were categorized into two subgroups depending on the laboratory test time. Univariate logistic regression and covariance diagnosis were used to screen for independent factors, and multifactorial logistic regression was used for model building. Data from 38 patients at another hospital were collected for external verification of the model. Basophils (OR 6.372; 95% CI 3.284-12.363), mean corpuscular volume (OR 1.244; 95% CI 1.088-1.422), red blood cell distribution width (OR 2.585; 95% CI 1.261-5.297), and platelet distribution width (OR 1.559; 95% CI 1.154-2.108) could be combined to predict recovery of patients with moderate COVID-19. The ROC curve showed that the model has good discrimination. The calibration curve showed that the model was well-fitted. The DCA showed that the model is clinically useful. Small increases in the above parameters within the normal range suggest an improvement in patients with moderate COVID-19.