Delta Radiomics Model for the Prediction of Progression-free Survival Time in Advanced Non-small-cell Lung Cancer Patients After Immunotherapy

Objective: To assess the validity of pre- and posttreatment computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics signatures and delta radiomics signatures for predicting progression-free survival (PFS) in stage III-IV non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients after immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy.

Methods: Quantitative image features of the largest primary lung tumours were extracted on CT-enhanced imaging at baseline (time point 0, TP0) and after the 2-3 immunotherapy cycles (time point 1, TP1). The critical features were selected to construct TP0, TP1 and delta radiomics signatures for the risk stratification of patient survival after ICI treatment. In addition, a prediction model integrating the clinicopathologic risk characteristics and phenotypic signature was developed for the prediction of PFS.

Results: The C-index of TP0, TP1 and delta radiomics models in the training and validation cohort were 0.64, 0.75, 0.80, and 0.61, 0.68, 0.78, respectively. The delta radiomics score exhibited good accuracy for distinguishing patients with slow and rapid progression to ICI treatment. The predictive accuracy of the combined prediction model was higher than that of the clinical prediction model in both training and validation sets (P<0.05), with a C-index of 0.83 and 0.70, respectively. Additionally, the delta radiomics model (C-index of 0.86) had a higher predictive accuracy compared to PD-L1 expression (C-index of 0.50) (P<0.0001).

Conclusions: The combined prediction model including clinicopathologic characteristics (tumour anatomical classification and brain metastasis) and the delta radiomics signature could achieve the individualized prediction of PFS in ICIs-treated NSCLC patients.