Associations Between Long-term Exposures to Airborne PM Components and Mortality in Massachusetts: Mixture Analysis Exploration

Background: Numerous studies have documented PM's links with adverse health outcomes. Comparatively fewer studies have evaluated specific PM components. The lack of exposure measurements and high correlation among different PM components are two limitations.

Methods: We applied a novel exposure prediction model to obtain annual Census tract-level concentrations of 15 PM components (Zn, V, Si, Pb, Ni, K, Fe, Cu, Ca, Br, SO, NO, NH, OC, EC) in Massachusetts from 2000 to 2015, to which we matched geocoded deaths. All non-accidental mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and respiratory mortality were examined for the population aged 18 or over. Weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression models were used to examine the cumulative associations between PM components mixture and outcomes and each component's contributions to the cumulative associations. We have fit WQS models on 15 PM components and a priori identified source groups (heavy fuel oil combustion, biomass burning, crustal matter, non-tailpipe traffic source, tailpipe traffic source, secondary particles from power plants, secondary particles from agriculture, unclear source) for the 15 PM components. Total PM mass analysis and single component associations were also conducted through quasi-Poisson regression models.

Results: Positive cumulative associations between the components mixture and all three outcomes were observed from the WQS models. Components with large contribution to the cumulative associations included K, OC, and Fe. Biomass burning, traffic emissions, and secondary particles from power plants were identified as important source contributing to the cumulative associations. Mortality rate ratios for cardiovascular mortality were of greater magnitude than all non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality, which is also observed in cumulative associations estimated from WQS, total PM mass analysis, and single component associations.

Conclusion: We have found positive associations between the mixture of 15 PM components and all non-accidental mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and respiratory mortality. Among these components, Fe, K, and OC have been identified as having important contribution to the cumulative associations. The WQS results also suggests potential source effects from biomass burning, traffic emissions, and secondary particles from power plants.