Application of Machine Learning Algorithms in Predicting HIV Infection Among Men Who Have Sex with Men: Model Development and Validation

Background: Continuously growing of HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM), as well as the low rate of HIV testing of MSM in China, demonstrates a need for innovative strategies to improve the implementation of HIV prevention. The use of machine learning algorithms is an increasing tendency in disease diagnosis prediction. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models in predicting HIV infection among MSM that can identify individuals at increased risk of HIV acquisition for transmission-reduction interventions.

Methods: We extracted data from MSM sentinel surveillance in Zhejiang province from 2018 to 2020. Univariate logistic regression was used to select significant variables in 2018-2019 data ( < 0.05). After data processing and feature selection, we divided the model development data into two groups by stratified random sampling: training data (70%) and testing data (30%). The Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) was applied to solve the problem of unbalanced data. The evaluation metrics of model performance were comprised of accuracy, precision, recall, F-measure, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Then, we explored three commonly-used machine learning algorithms to compare with logistic regression (LR), including decision tree (DT), support vector machines (SVM), and random forest (RF). Finally, the four models were validated prospectively with 2020 data from Zhejiang province.

Results: A total of 6,346 MSM were included in model development data, 372 of whom were diagnosed with HIV. In feature selection, 12 variables were selected as model predicting indicators. Compared with LR, the algorithms of DT, SVM, and RF improved the classification prediction performance in SMOTE-processed data, with the AUC of 0.778, 0.856, 0.887, and 0.942, respectively. RF was the best-performing algorithm (accuracy = 0.871, precision = 0.960, recall = 0.775, F-measure = 0.858, and AUC = 0.942). And the RF model still performed well on prospective validation (AUC = 0.846).

Conclusion: Machine learning models are substantially better than conventional LR model and RF should be considered in prediction tools of HIV infection in Chinese MSM. Further studies are needed to optimize and promote these algorithms and evaluate their impact on HIV prevention of MSM.