Assessing Wastewater-based Epidemiology for the Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 Incidence in Catalonia

Overview

Journal Sci Rep

Specialty Science

Date 2022 Sep 6

PMID 36064874

Authors

Bernat Joseph-Duran

Albert Serra-Compte

Miquel Sarrias

Susana Gonzalez

Daniel Lopez

Clara Prats

Marti Catala

Enric Alvarez-Lacalle

Sergio Alonso

Marina Arnaldos

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

While wastewater-based epidemiology has proven a useful tool for epidemiological surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, few quantitative models comparing virus concentrations in wastewater samples and cumulative incidence have been established. In this work, a simple mathematical model relating virus concentration and cumulative incidence for full contagion waves was developed. The model was then used for short-term forecasting and compared to a local linear model. Both scenarios were tested using a dataset composed of samples from 32 wastewater treatment plants and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence data covering the corresponding geographical areas during a 7-month period, including two contagion waves. A population-averaged dataset was also developed to model and predict the incidence over the full geography. Overall, the mathematical model based on wastewater data showed a good correlation with cumulative cases and allowed us to anticipate SARS-CoV-2 incidence in one week, which is of special relevance in situations where the epidemiological monitoring system cannot be fully implemented.

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