Tumor Mutational Burden As a Predictor of First-Line Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Versus Carboplatin Benefit in Cisplatin-Unfit Patients With Urothelial Carcinoma

Purpose: In real-world settings, patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (mUC) are often more frail than clinical trials, underscoring an unmet need to identify patients who might be spared first-line chemotherapy. We sought to determine whether tumor mutational burden (TMB) identifies patients with comparable or superior clinical benefit of first-line single-agent immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICPI) in real-world patients deemed cisplatin-unfit.

Methods: Patients with mUC treated in first-line advanced setting (N = 401) received ICPI (n = 245) or carboplatin regiment without ICPI (n = 156) at physician's discretion in standard-of-care settings across approximately 280 US academic or community-based cancer clinics between March 2014 and July 2021. Deidentified data were captured into a real-world clinicogenomic database. All patients underwent testing using Foundation Medicine assays. Progression-free survival (PFS), time to next treatment (TTNT), and overall survival (OS) comparing ICPI versus chemotherapy were adjusted for known treatment assignment imbalances using propensity scores.

Results: TMB ≥ 10 was detected in 122 of 401 (30.4%) patients. Among patients receiving ICPI, those with TMB ≥ 10 had more favorable PFS (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.85), TTNT (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.83), and OS (HR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.68). Comparing ICPI versus carboplatin, adjusting for imbalances, patients with TMB ≥ 10 had more favorable PFS (HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.82), TTNT (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.91), and OS (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.29 to 1.08) on ICPI versus chemotherapy, but not TMB < 10. Comparisons unadjusted for imbalances had similar associations.

Conclusions: In real-world settings, mUC patients with TMB ≥ 10 have more favorable outcomes on first-line single-agent ICPI than carboplatin, adding clinical validity to TMB assessed by an existing US Food and Drug Administration-approved platform.