Cost-effectiveness of Community Diabetes Screening: Application of Akaike Information Criterion in Rural Communities of Nigeria

Background: The prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) is increasing globally, and this requires several approaches to screening. There are reports of alternative indices for prediction of DM, besides fasting blood glucose (FBG) level. This study, investigated the ability of combination of biochemical and anthropometric parameters and orodental disease indicators (ODIs) to generate models for DM prediction, using Akaike information criterion (AIC) to substantiate health economics of diabetes screening.

Methods: Four hundred and thirty-three subjects were enrolled in the study in Ndokwa communities, Delta State, Nigeria, and their glycaemic status was determined, using the CardioChek analyser and previous data from the Prediabetes and Cardiovascular Complications Study were also used. The cost of screening for diabetes (NGN 300 = $0.72) in a not-for-profit organization/hospital was used as basis to calculate the health economics of number of individuals with DM in 1,000 participants. Data on the subjects' anthropometric, biochemical and ODI parameters were used to generate different models, using R statistical software (version 4.0.0). The different models were evaluated for their AIC values. Lowest AIC was considered as best model. Microsoft Excel software (version 2020) was used in preliminary analysis.

Result: The cost of identifying <2 new subjects with hyperglycemia, in 1,000 people was ≥NGN 300,000 ($ 716). A total of 4,125 models were generated. AIC modeling indicates FBG test as the best model (AIC = 4), and the least being combination of random blood sugar + waist circumference + hip circumference (AIC ≈ 34). Models containing ODI parameters had AIC values >34, hence considered as not recommendable.

Conclusion: The cost of general screening for diabetes in rural communities may appear high and burdensome in terms of health economics. However, the use of prediction models involving AIC is of value in terms of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness to the healthcare consumers, which favors health economics.