Association of the Depressive Scores, Depressive Symptoms, and Conversion Patterns of Depressive Symptoms with the Risk of New-onset Chronic Diseases and Multimorbidity in the Middle-aged and Elderly Chinese Population

Background: The relationship between depressive symptoms (DS) and their conversion patterns over time and the new-onset risk of diseases in the middle-aged and elderly population has not been extensively studied.

Methods: Based on The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study participants in 2013, we established 13 cohorts involving 12 types of chronic diseases and multimorbidity, who were identified by face-to-face questionnaires. We retrospectively assessed their DS during 2011 and 2013 through the 10-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), which were classified into never, newly developed, relieved, and persistent DS, and these participants were followed from 2013 to 2018.

Findings: CES-D scores were new-onset risk factors for 9 diseases. The new-onset risk of diseases increased with higher CES-D scores. When CES-D scores were higher than approximately 6, the hazard ratios (HRs) of emergent diseases were greater than 1. DS was independent new-onset risk factors for 8 diseases, with HRs (95% CI) ranging from 1.2635 (1.0061-1.5867) to 1.5231 (1.0717-2.165). Persistent DS was an independent risk factor for most diseases but might be an independent protective factor for new-onset cancer (HR, 95% CI: 0.276, 0.106-0.723).

Interpretation: DS is closely associated with new-onset risk of chronic diseases and multimorbidity, and awareness of the risk associated with pre-DS status (6<CES-D<12) should be raised. chronic disease risks were almost lower with newly developed and relieved DS than with persistent DS, suggesting the potential benefits of active management of DS to reduce the risk of emergent diseases in middle-aged and elderly population.

Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China.