Interactive Effects Between Temperature and PM on Mortality: A Study of Varying Coefficient Distributed Lag Model - Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China, 2013-2020

Overview

Journal China CDC Wkly

Date 2022 Aug 3

PMID 35919455

Authors

Sujuan Chen

Hang Dong

Mengmeng Li

Lin Huang

Guozhen Lin

Qiyong Liu

Boguang Wang

Jun Yang

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Introduction: There is a large body of epidemiological evidence showing significantly increased mortality risks from air pollution and temperature. However, findings on the modification of the association between air pollution and mortality by temperature are mixed.

Methods: We used a varying coefficient distributed lag model to assess the complex interplay between air temperature and PM on daily mortality in Guangzhou City from 2013 to 2020, with the aim of establishing the PM-mortality association at different temperatures and exploring synergetic mortality risks from PM and temperature on vulnerable populations.

Results: We observed near-linear concentration-response associations between PM and mortality across different temperature levels. Each 10 μg/m³ increase of PM in low, medium, and high temperature strata was associated with increments of 0.73% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.38%, 1.09%], 0.12% (95% CI: -0.27%, 0.52%), and 0.46% (95% CI: 0.11%, 0.81%) in non-accidental mortality, with a statistically significant difference between low and medium temperatures (=0.02). There were significant modification effects of PM by low temperature for cardiovascular mortality and among individuals 75 years or older.

Conclusions: Low temperatures may exacerbate physiological responses to short-term PM exposure in Guangzhou, China.

Citing Articles

Effects of PM exposure and air temperature on risk of cardiovascular disease: evidence from a prospective cohort study.

Zhang Z, An R, Guo H, Yang X Front Public Health. 2025; 12():1487034.

PMID: 39845671 PMC: 11750874. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1487034.

Association between Outdoor Air Pollution and Fatal Acute Myocardial Infarction in Lithuania between 2006 and 2015: A Time Series Design.

Vaiciulis V, Vencloviene J, Miskinyte A, Ustinaviciene R, Dedele A, Kaliniene G Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023; 20(5).

PMID: 36901560 PMC: 10002310. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20054549.

Association between ambient cold exposure and mortality risk in Shandong Province, China: Modification effect of particulate matter size.

Zhao Z, Chu J, Xu X, Cao Y, Schikowski T, Geng M Front Public Health. 2023; 10:1093588.

PMID: 36684922 PMC: 9850236. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1093588.

References

Qiu H, Tan K, Long F, Wang L, Yu H, Deng R . The Burden of COPD Morbidity Attributable to the Interaction between Ambient Air Pollution and Temperature in Chengdu, China. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018; 15(3). PMC: 5877037. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15030492. View

Li Y, Ma Z, Zheng C, Shang Y . Ambient temperature enhanced acute cardiovascular-respiratory mortality effects of PM2.5 in Beijing, China. Int J Biometeorol. 2015; 59(12):1761-70. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-015-0984-z. View

Cheng H, Zhu F, Lei R, Shen C, Liu J, Yang M . Associations of ambient PM and O with cardiovascular mortality: a time-series study in Hefei, China. Int J Biometeorol. 2019; 63(10):1437-1447. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-019-01766-2. View

Qian Z, He Q, Lin H, Kong L, Bentley C, Liu W . High temperatures enhanced acute mortality effects of ambient particle pollution in the "oven" city of Wuhan, China. Environ Health Perspect. 2008; 116(9):1172-8. PMC: 2535618. DOI: 10.1289/ehp.10847. View

Deng L, Ma P, Wu Y, Ma Y, Yang X, Li Y . High and low temperatures aggravate airway inflammation of asthma: Evidence in a mouse model. Environ Pollut. 2019; 256:113433. DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2019.113433. View

Woodward A, Hou X, Zhu T, Zhang J, Brown H, Yang J . Modification of the effects of air pollutants on mortality by temperature: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Sci Total Environ. 2016; 575:1556-1570. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.070. View

Yang J, Yin P, Zhou M, Ou C, Guo Y, Gasparrini A . Cardiovascular mortality risk attributable to ambient temperature in China. Heart. 2015; 101(24):1966-72. DOI: 10.1136/heartjnl-2015-308062. View

Jhun I, Fann N, Zanobetti A, Hubbell B . Effect modification of ozone-related mortality risks by temperature in 97 US cities. Environ Int. 2014; 73:128-34. DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2014.07.009. View

Zhao X, Chen F, Feng Z, Li X, Zhou X . Characterizing the effect of temperature fluctuation on the incidence of malaria: an epidemiological study in south-west China using the varying coefficient distributed lag non-linear model. Malar J. 2014; 13:192. PMC: 4050477. DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-13-192. View

10.

Yang J, Zhou M, Ren Z, Li M, Wang B, Liu D . Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China. Nat Commun. 2021; 12(1):1039. PMC: 7884743. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21305-1. View

11.

Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, Kinney P, Petkova E, Lavigne E . Temporal Variation in Heat-Mortality Associations: A Multicountry Study. Environ Health Perspect. 2015; 123(11):1200-7. PMC: 4629745. DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1409070. View

12.

. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet. 2020; 396(10258):1223-1249. PMC: 7566194. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2. View

13.

Simoni M, Baldacci S, Maio S, Cerrai S, Sarno G, Viegi G . Adverse effects of outdoor pollution in the elderly. J Thorac Dis. 2015; 7(1):34-45. PMC: 4311079. DOI: 10.3978/j.issn.2072-1439.2014.12.10. View

14.

Sun S, Cao P, Chan K, Tsang H, Wong C, Thach T . Temperature as a modifier of the effects of fine particulate matter on acute mortality in Hong Kong. Environ Pollut. 2015; 205:357-64. DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2015.06.007. View