Identification of the Best Anthropometric Index for Predicting the 10-Year Cardiovascular Disease in Southwest China: A Large Single-Center, Cross-Sectional Study

Introduction: This population-based cross-sectional study aimed to identify the best predictor of the 10-year cardiovascular (CV) high risk among old and new anthropometric indices.

Methods: We investigated 76,915 adults older than 18 years of age living in southwest China. Ten obesity indices were calculated. The 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk was estimated using the Framingham risk score. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to assess the ability of the anthropometric index to predict the 10-year high risk of CVD events.

Results: The waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) had the highest area under the curve (AUC) value (0.711; sensitivity: 62.22%, specificity: 42.73%) in men, while the body fat index (BAI) had the lowest AUC value (0.624, sensitivity: 49.07%, specificity: 54.84%). The waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and the body roundness index (BRI) showed the highest AUC value (0.751, sensitivity: 39.24%, 39.83%, specificity: 75.68%, 68.59%) in women, while the BAI showed the lowest AUC value (0.671, sensitivity: 53.15%, specificity: 57.14%).

Conclusions: The WHR was the best anthropometric measure for assessing the 10-year high risk of CVD in men, while the WHtR and BRI were the best measures for women. In men, the WHR should be < 0.88, and in women, the WHtR should be < 0.502 or the BRI should be < 3.41.