School Reopening And COVID-19 In The Community: Evidence From A Natural Experiment In Ontario, Canada

In December 2020, Ontario, Canada, entered a provincewide shutdown to mitigate COVID-19 transmission. A regionalized approach was taken to reopen schools throughout early 2021 without any other opening of the economy, offering a unique natural experiment to estimate the impact of school reopening on community transmission. Estimated increases of 0.07, 0.08, 0.07, and 0.13 percentage points in community COVID-19 case growth rates occurred 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, and 26-30 days, respectively, after schools reopened. Although small, these changes were particularly evident among children younger than age fourteen, increased over time, and were greater when lag periods were considered, which points to a likely causal effect between in-person classes and a small increase in transmission. These findings suggest that although additional COVID-19 cases are to be expected after the reopening of schools, these risks may be manageable with sufficient, layered mitigation policies.