The Association Between Smoking Behaviors and Prices and Taxes Per Cigarette Pack in the United States from 2000 Through 2019

Objective: The conclusions on how tax and price increases affect smoking behaviors are mixed. This work is devoted to re-evaluating the relationship between cigarette prices and taxes and smoking behaviors.

Methods: Using 2000-2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data, we employed linear mixed-effect models to re-examine the impact of cigarette prices and taxes on smoking prevalence and the proportion of current smokers having tried to quit smoking in the past 12 months. All the analyses were conducted for the general population, then by age group, gender, race/ethnicity, and income level.

Results: The results indicate that higher cigarette prices and taxes were associated with a decrease in smoking prevalence and an increased likelihood of quitting smoking. Cigarette tax and price increases produced the most powerful impact on the smoking prevalence of 18- to 24-year-olds. The estimates also show that males tended to be more price-sensitive than females. Raising cigarette prices and taxes was estimated to be more effective in reducing the smoking prevalence among non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics when compared to non-Hispanic whites. Cigarette price and tax changes were likely to have a smaller effect on individuals with annual income under $25,000 relative to individuals with higher income levels.

Conclusions: Increases in cigarette prices and taxes are significantly associated with a reduction in smoking prevalence and an increased likelihood of quitting smoking among adults across different demographic and socioeconomic groups. However, as cigarette price and tax changes disproportionately affect low-income individuals, raising cigarette prices and taxes may deepen income disparities.