Development and External Validation of a Novel Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-specific Survival in Patients with Ascending Colon Adenocarcinoma After Surgery: a Population-based Study

Background: This study aimed to develop and validate a novel nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with ascending colon adenocarcinoma after surgery.

Methods: Patients with ascending colon adenocarcinoma were enrolled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 1973 to 2015 and randomly divided into a training set (5930) and a validation set (2540). The cut-off values for age, tumour size and lymph node ratio (LNR) were calculated via X-tile software. In the training set, independent prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox analyses, and a nomogram incorporating these factors was subsequently built. Data from the validation set were used to assess the reliability and accuracy of the nomogram and then compared with the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumour-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system. Furthermore, external validation was performed from a single institution in China.

Results: A total of 8470 patients were enrolled from the SEER database, 5930 patients were allocated to the training set, 2540 were allocated to the internal validation set and a separate set of 473 patients was allocated to the external validation set. The optimal cut-off values of age, tumour size and lymph node ratio were 73 and 85, 33 and 75 and 4.9 and 32.8, respectively. Univariate and multivariate Cox multivariate regression revealed that age, AJCC 8th edition T, N and M stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), tumour differentiation, chemotherapy, perineural invasion and LNR were independent risk factors for patient CSS. The nomogram showed good predictive ability, as indicated by discriminative ability and calibration, with C statistics of 0.835 (95% CI, 0.823-0.847) and 0.848 (95% CI, 0.830-0.866) in the training and validation sets and 0.732 (95% CI, 0.664-0.799) in the external validation set. The nomogram showed favourable discrimination and calibration abilities and performed better than the AJCC TNM staging system.

Conclusions: A novel validated nomogram could effectively predict patients with ascending colon adenocarcinoma after surgery, and this predictive power may guide clinicians in accurate prognostic judgement.