Public Transit Travel Choice in the Post COVID-19 Pandemic Era: An Application of the Extended Theory of Planned Behavior

It is widely reported that the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced ridership and brought severe challenges to urban public transit systems in many countries. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on individual people's choice of public transit may continue for a while after the peak of the crisis. However, there is insufficient detailed knowledge of how individuals respond in the post-pandemic context and make choices on public transit travel. This paper contributes fresh evidence for this by looking at Beijing as a case. The theoretical framework of the Theory of Planned Behavior is used to model individuals' public transit travel choice-making processes along with three additional constructs representing the impact of the pandemic and the nature of urban mobility behaviors, namely perceived knowledge of COVID-19, the psychological risks of COVID-19, and travel habits. Structural equation modeling is used in model estimation. We point out that there may be potential differences between the effects and meanings of model constructs in the post-pandemic context and in normal daily context. Interestingly, despite the higher psychological risk's negative effects, higher perceived knowledge of COVID-19 has significantly positive effects on people's decision-making processes. A strong pre-pandemic personal habit of traveling by public transit has significant and positive effects on post-pandemic intention and perceived behavioral control. Group comparisons show that "captive" transit users have higher psychological risk of COVID-19 than "choice" transit users, yet their transit use decisions are less influenced by it. Based on the modeling results, more behavioral experiments are needed to further inform efficient policy-making.