Twenty-year Trends in All-cause Mortality of Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in Mexico: Results from a Nationwide Health Registry

Objective: Regional variations in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) mortality may be due to different spectra of local environmental factors. The aim of this study was to assess mortality trends in adults with SLE using a nationwide health registry.

Methods: Data came from the Dynamic Cubes of the General Direction of Health Information for 1998-2017 for mortality. In patients aged ≥15 years, SLE as the principal cause of death was defined according to ICD-10 code M32 and was classified by sex and age. Joinpoint trend analyses of annual age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for SLE patients and non-SLE people were made.

Results: We identified 11 449 SLE deaths and 9,989,874 non-SLE deaths. The SLE ASMR increased more than the non-SLE ASMR, with a 98.2% cumulative increase in the ratio of SLE to non-SLE deaths. Whereas the non-SLE ASMR remained relatively stable throughout the study period (overall and by sex), the SLE ASMR significantly increased between 1998 and 2009, non-significantly decreased between 2009 and 2013 and non-significantly increased thereafter. Both women and men had a large cumulative increase in the SLE ASMR/non-SLE ASMR ratio (73.9 and 191.3%, respectively). The Southeast region had the largest cumulative increases in the ratio of SLE to non-SLE ASMR (108.8%). Of the 11,449 deaths, 445 (3.8%) were in geographical areas where ≥40% of the population is indigenous.

Conclusion: SLE mortality rates have increased since 1998 and remain high compared with non-SLE mortality: significant sex and regional disparities persist.