Competition and Resource Depletion Shape the Thermal Response of Population Fitness in Aedes Aegypti

Mathematical models that incorporate the temperature dependence of lab-measured life history traits are increasingly being used to predict how climatic warming will affect ectotherms, including disease vectors and other arthropods. These temperature-trait relationships are typically measured under laboratory conditions that ignore how conspecific competition in depleting resource environments-a commonly occurring scenario in nature-regulates natural populations. Here, we used laboratory experiments on the mosquito Aedes aegypti, combined with a stage-structured population model, to investigate this issue. We find that intensified larval competition in ecologically-realistic depleting resource environments can significantly diminish the vector's maximal population-level fitness across the entire temperature range, cause a ~6 °C decrease in the optimal temperature for fitness, and contract its thermal niche width by ~10 °C. Our results provide evidence for the importance of considering intra-specific competition under depleting resources when predicting how arthropod populations will respond to climatic warming.