A Novel Autophagy-Related Prognostic Risk Model and a Nomogram for Survival Prediction of Oral Cancer Patients

Background: This study is aimed at constructing a risk signature to predict survival outcomes of ORCA patients.

Methods: We identified differentially expressed autophagy-related genes (DEARGs) based on the RNA sequencing data in the TCGA database; then, four independent survival-related ARGs were identified to construct an autophagy-associated signature for survival prediction of ORCA patients. The validity and robustness of the prognostic model were validated by clinicopathological data and survival data. Subsequently, four independent prognostic DEARGs that composed the model were evaluated individually.

Results: The expressions of 232 autophagy-related genes (ARGs) in 127 ORCA and 13 control tissues were compared, and 36 DEARGs were filtered out. We performed functional enrichment analysis and constructed protein-protein interaction network for 36 DEARGs. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were adopted for searching prognostic ARGs, and an autophagy-associated signature for ORCA patients was constructed. Eventually, 4 desirable independent survival-related ARGs (, , , and ) were confirmed and comprised the prognostic model. We made use of multiple ways to verify the accuracy of the novel autophagy-related signature for survival evaluation, such as receiver-operator characteristic curve, Kaplan-Meier plotter, and clinicopathological correlational analyses. Four independent prognostic DEARGs that formed the model were also associated with the prognosis of ORCA patients.

Conclusions: The autophagy-related risk model can evaluate OS for ORCA patients independently since it is accurate and stable. Four prognostic ARGs that composed the model can be studied deeply for target treatment.