Constructing Prediction Models for Freezing of Gait by Nomogram and Machine Learning: A Longitudinal Study

Although risk factors for freezing of gait (FOG) have been reported, there are still few prediction models based on cohorts that predict FOG. This 1-year longitudinal study was aimed to identify the clinical measurements closely linked with FOG in Chinese patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) and construct prediction models based on those clinical measurements using Cox regression and machine learning. The study enrolled 967 PD patients without FOG in the Hoehn and Yahr (H&Y) stage 1-3 at baseline. The development of FOG during follow-up was the end-point. Neurologists trained in movement disorders collected information from the patients on a PD medication regimen and their clinical characteristics. The cohort was assessed on the same clinical scales, and the baseline characteristics were recorded and compared. After the patients were divided into the training set and test set by the stratified random sampling method, prediction models were constructed using Cox regression and random forests (RF). At the end of the study, 26.4% (255/967) of the patients suffered from FOG. Patients with FOG had significantly longer disease duration, greater age at baseline and H&Y stage, lower proportion in Tremor Dominant (TD) subtype, a higher proportion in wearing-off, levodopa equivalent daily dosage (LEDD), usage of L-Dopa and catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) inhibitors, a higher score in scales of Unified Parkinson's Disease Rate Scale (UPDRS), 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39), Non-Motor Symptoms Scale (NMSS), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS)-17, Parkinson's Fatigue Scale (PFS), rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder questionnaire-Hong Kong (RBDQ-HK), Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), and a lower score in scales of Parkinson's Disease Sleep Scale (PDSS) ( < 0.05). The risk factors associated with FOG included PD onset not being under the age of 50 years, a lower degree of tremor symptom, impaired activities of daily living (ADL), UPDRS item 30 posture instability, unexplained weight loss, and a higher degree of fatigue. The concordance index (C-index) was 0.68 for the training set (for internal validation) and 0.71 for the test set (for external validation) of the nomogram prediction model, which showed a good predictive ability for patients in different survival times. The RF model also performed well, the C-index was 0.74 for the test set, and the AUC was 0.74. The study found some new risk factors associated with the FOG including a lower degree of tremor symptom, unexplained weight loss, and a higher degree of fatigue through a longitudinal study, and constructed relatively acceptable prediction models.