Modeling the Number of People Infected with SARS-COV-2 from Wastewater Viral Load in Northwest Spain

Overview

Journal Sci Total Environ

Date 2021 Dec 18

PMID 34921882

Citations 23

Authors

Juan A Vallejo

Noelia Trigo-Tasende

Soraya Rumbo-Feal

Kelly Conde-Perez

Angel Lopez-Oriona

Ines Barbeito

Manuel Vaamonde

Javier Tarrio-Saavedra

Ruben Reif

Susana Ladra

Bruno K Rodino-Janeiro

Mohammed Nasser-Ali

Angeles Cid

Maria Veiga

Anton Acevedo

Carlos Lamora

German Bou

Ricardo Cao

Margarita Poza

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

The quantification of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in wastewater has emerged as a useful tool to monitor COVID-19 outbreaks in the community. This approach was implemented in the metropolitan area of A Coruña (NW Spain), where wastewater from a treatment plant was analyzed to track the epidemic dynamics in a population of 369,098 inhabitants. Viral load detected in the wastewater and the epidemiological data from A Coruña health system served as main sources for statistical models developing. Regression models described here allowed us to estimate the number of infected people (R = 0.9), including symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. These models have helped to understand the real magnitude of the epidemic in a population at any given time and have been used as an effective early warning tool for predicting outbreaks in A Coruña municipality. The methodology of the present work could be used to develop a similar wastewater-based epidemiological model to track the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic anywhere in the world where centralized water-based sanitation systems exist.

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