Breast and Prostate Cancer Risk: The Interplay of Polygenic Risk, Rare Pathogenic Germline Variants, and Family History

Purpose: We aimed to investigate to what extent polygenic risk scores (PRS), rare pathogenic germline variants (PVs), and family history jointly influence breast cancer and prostate cancer risk.

Methods: A total of 200,643 individuals from the UK Biobank were categorized as follows: (1) heterozygotes or nonheterozygotes for PVs in moderate to high-risk cancer genes, (2) PRS strata, and (3) with or without a family history of cancer. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute the odds ratio across groups and the cumulative incidence through life.

Results: Cumulative incidence by age 70 years among the nonheterozygotes across PRS strata ranged from 9% to 32% and from 9% to 35% for breast cancer and prostate cancer, respectively. Among the PV heterozygotes it ranged from 20% to 48% in moderate-risk genes and from 51% to 74% in high-risk genes for breast cancer, and it ranged from 30% to 59% in prostate cancer risk genes. Family history was always associated with an increased cancer odds ratio.

Conclusion: PRS alone provides a meaningful risk gradient leading to a cancer risk stratification comparable to PVs in moderate risk genes, whereas acts as a risk modifier when considering high-risk genes. Including family history along with PV and PRS further improves cancer risk stratification.