A Neuropsychosocial Signature Predicts Longitudinal Symptom Changes in Women with Irritable Bowel Syndrome

Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common disorder of brain-gut interactions characterized by chronic abdominal pain, altered bowel movements, often accompanied by somatic and psychiatric comorbidities. We aimed to test the hypothesis that a baseline phenotype composed of multi-modal neuroimaging and clinical features predicts clinical improvement on the IBS Symptom Severity Scale (IBS-SSS) at 3 and 12 months without any targeted intervention. Female participants (N = 60) were identified as "improvers" (50-point decrease on IBS-SSS from baseline) or "non-improvers." Data integration analysis using latent components (DIABLO) was applied to a training and test dataset to determine whether a limited number of sets of multiple correlated baseline'omics data types, including brain morphometry, anatomical connectivity, resting-state functional connectivity, and clinical features could accurately predict improver status. The derived predictive models predicted improvement status at 3-months and 12-months with 91% and 83% accuracy, respectively. Across both time points, non-improvers were classified as having greater correlated morphometry, anatomical connectivity and resting-state functional connectivity characteristics within salience and sensorimotor networks associated with greater pain unpleasantness, but lower default mode network integrity and connectivity. This suggests that non-improvers have a greater engagement of attentional systems to perseverate on painful visceral stimuli, predicting IBS exacerbation. The ability of baseline multimodal brain-clinical signatures to predict symptom trajectories may have implications in guiding integrative treatment in the age of precision medicine, such as treatments targeted at changing attentional systems such as mindfulness or cognitive behavioral therapy.