Potential Impact of Nirsevimab on RSV Transmission and Medically Attended Lower Respiratory Tract Illness Caused by RSV: A Disease Transmission Model

Overview

Journal Infect Dis Ther

Specialty Infectious Diseases

Date 2021 Nov 23

PMID 34813073

Citations 15

Authors

Nicolas Voirin

Victor Virlogeux

Clarisse Demont

Alexia Kieffer

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Introduction: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is associated with significant morbidity worldwide, especially among infants. We evaluated the potential impact of prophylactic nirsevimab, a monoclonal antibody, in infants experiencing their first RSV season, and the number of medically-attended lower respiratory tract infection episodes caused by RSV (RSV-MALRTI) in the USA.

Methods: We developed an age-structured, dynamic, deterministic compartmental model reflecting RSV natural history, incorporating USA demographic data and an age-specific contact matrix. We assumed either no effect of nirsevimab on transmission (scenario 1) or a 50% reduction of viral shedding (scenario 2). Model outcomes were RSV-MALRTIs, ICD-9 coded in the Marketscan database by month. We focused on age groups corresponding to the first 2 years of life, during seven RSV seasons (2008-2015).

Results: Scenario 1 illustrated the direct individual benefit when a universal immunization strategy is applied to all infants. In scenario 2, herd protection was observed across age groups, with 15.5% of all avoided cases due to reduced transmission; the greatest impact was in the youngest age group and a benefit was observed in those aged 65+ years.

Conclusion: These preliminary data suggest that single-dose nirsevimab will benefit infants experiencing their first RSV season, with a potential increase in effectiveness dependent on nirsevimab's mechanism of action.

Citing Articles

An evaluation of 2015-2019 United States respiratory syncytial virus hospitalizations as a framework to develop potential strategies for the preventiosn of the hospital burden among infants.

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Disease Burden Associated with All Infants in Their First RSV Season in the UK: A Static Model of Universal Immunization with Nirsevimab Against RSV-Related Outcomes.

Kieffer A, Beuvelet M, Moncayo G, Chetty M, Sardesai A, Musci R Infect Dis Ther. 2024; 13(10):2135-2153.

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Ezpeleta G, Navascues A, Viguria N, Herranz-Aguirre M, Juan Belloc S, Gimeno Ballester J Vaccines (Basel). 2024; 12(4).

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