National Holidays and Social Mobility Behaviors: Alternatives for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil

Overview

Journal Int J Environ Res Public Health

Publisher MDPI

Specialties Environmental Health
Public Health

Date 2021 Nov 13

PMID 34770108

Citations 7

Authors

Dunfrey Pires Aragao

Davi Henrique Dos Santos

Adriano Mondini

Luiz Marcos Garcia Goncalves

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the influence of holidays and community mobility on the transmission rate and death count of COVID-19 in Brazil. We identify national holidays and hallmark holidays to assess their effect on disease reports of confirmed cases and deaths. First, we use a one-variate model with the number of infected people as input data to forecast the number of deaths. This simple model is compared with a more robust deep learning multi-variate model that uses mobility and transmission rates (R0, Re) from a SEIRD model as input data. A principal components model of community mobility, generated by the principal component analysis (PCA) method, is added to improve the input features for the multi-variate model. The deep learning model architecture is an LSTM stacked layer combined with a dense layer to regress daily deaths caused by COVID-19. The multi-variate model incremented with engineered input features can enhance the forecast performance by up to 18.99% compared to the standard one-variate data-driven model.

Citing Articles

A New Auto-Regressive Multi-Variable Modified Auto-Encoder for Multivariate Time-Series Prediction: A Case Study with Application to COVID-19 Pandemics.

de Oliveira E, Aragao D, Goncalves L Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2024; 21(4).

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Public holidays increased the transmission of COVID-19 in Japan, 2020-2021: a mathematical modelling study.

Qiao J, Nishiura H Epidemiol Health. 2024; 46:e2024025.

PMID: 38317530 PMC: 11099593. DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2024025.

Unravelling the effect of New Year's Eve celebrations on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Geenen C, Thibaut J, Laenen L, Raymenants J, Cuypers L, Maes P Sci Rep. 2023; 13(1):22195.

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Epidemiological Surveillance Reveals the Rise and Establishment of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant in Brazil.

do Prado Silva J, de Lima A, Alvim L, Malta F, Mendonca C, de Carvalho A Viruses. 2023; 15(4).

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Human behavior in the time of COVID-19: Learning from big data.

Lyu H, Imtiaz A, Zhao Y, Luo J Front Big Data. 2023; 6:1099182.

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