Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease with or Without Cirrhosis: a Population-based Study

Background: There are limited data regarding the factors associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients without cirrhosis. We sought to determine the prevalence and factors associated with HCC in NAFLD patients with or without cirrhosis.

Methods: Adults with NAFLD (June 2015 to May 2020) were identified using the electronic health record database (Explorys Inc, Cleveland, OH) from 26 major integrated US healthcare systems. The prevalence of HCC was calculated. Multivariable analyses adjusting for covariates were performed to evaluate the associated risk factors and the presence of HCC.

Results: A total of 392,800 NAFLD patients were identified. Among 1110 patients with HCC, 170 (15.3%) had no cirrhosis. The prevalence of HCC in non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic NAFLD patients was 4.6/10,000 persons (95% CI 3.9-5.3), and 374.4/10,000 persons (95% CI 350.9-398.8), respectively. Age > 65 years (adjusted OR; 3.37, 95% CI 2.47-4.59), ever had elevated alanine aminotransferase (2.69; 2.14-3.37), male gender (2.57; 1.88-3.49), smoker (1.75; 1.23-2.49), and diabetes (1.56; 1.15-2.11) were associated with HCC in non-cirrhotic NAFLD (all P < 0.05). The prevalence of HCC in the non-cirrhotic with all five risk factors was 45.5/10,000 persons (95% CI 17.4-73.6). The factors associated with HCC in cirrhotic NAFLD included clinical decompensation, age > 65 years, male gender, Hispanic race, elevated alanine aminotransferase, diabetes and smoker (all P < 0.05).

Conclusions: These data identified the major risk factors for the development of HCC in NAFLD patients. In the non-cirrhotics, older male patients with smoking history, diabetes and an elevated alanine aminotransferase had highest risk and may need increased judicious monitoring.