Incidence and Risk Factors for Mortality and End-stage Renal Disease in People with Type 2 Diabetes and Diabetic Kidney Disease: a Population-based Cohort Study in the UK

Introduction: We aimed to determine the incidence of, and risk factors for all-cause/cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among people with type 2 diabetes with/without diabetic kidney disease (DKD) in the UK general population.

Research Design And Methods: We undertook a population-based cohort study using primary care UK electronic health records. We followed 8413 people with type 2 diabetes and DKD and a matched comparison cohort of people with type 2 diabetes without DKD. Risk factors for all-cause/CVD mortality (using both cohorts) and ESRD (DKD cohort only) were evaluated by estimating HRs with 95% CIs using Cox regression.

Results: In the DKD cohort (mean age 66.7 years, 62.4% male), incidence rates per 1000 person-years were 50.3 (all-cause mortality), 8.0 (CVD mortality) and 6.9 (ESRD). HRs (95% CIs; DKD vs comparison cohort) were 1.49 (1.35 to 1.64) for all-cause mortality and 1.60 (1.24 to 2.05) for CVD mortality. In general, higher all-cause mortality risks were seen with older age, underweight (body mass index <20 kg/m), reduced renal function, and cardiovascular/liver disease, and lower risks were seen with being female or overweight. In the DKD cohort, higher risks of ESRD were seen with reduced renal function at baseline, high material deprivation, cancer and non-insulin glucose-lowering drugs, and a lower risk was seen with overweight (≥25 kg/m).

Conclusions: Annually, one death will occur among every 20 people with type 2 diabetes and DKD. The identified risk factors in this study will help identify people with type 2 diabetes at most risk of death and progression of kidney disease, and help to direct effective management strategies.