The Impact of Cocirculating Pathogens on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)/Coronavirus Disease 2019 Surveillance: How Concurrent Epidemics May Introduce Bias and Decrease the Observed SARS-CoV-2 Percentage Positivity

Overview

Journal J Infect Dis

Publisher Oxford University Press

Specialty Infectious Diseases

Date 2021 Sep 13

PMID 34514500

Citations 3

Authors

Aleksandra Kovacevic

Rosalind M Eggo

Marc Baguelin

Matthieu Domenech de Celles

Lulla Opatowski

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: Circulation of seasonal non-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) respiratory viruses with syndromic overlap during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may alter the quality of COVID-19 surveillance, with possible consequences for real-time analysis and delay in implementation of control measures.

Methods: Using a multipathogen susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) transmission model formalizing cocirculation of SARS-CoV-2 and another respiratory virus, we assessed how an outbreak of secondary virus may affect 2 COVID-19 surveillance indicators: testing demand and positivity. Using simulation, we assessed to what extent the use of multiplex polymerase chain reaction tests on a subsample of symptomatic individuals can help correct the observed SARS-CoV-2 percentage positivity and improve surveillance quality.

Results: We find that a non-SARS-CoV-2 epidemic strongly increases SARS-CoV-2 daily testing demand and artificially reduces the observed SARS-CoV-2 percentage positivity for the duration of the outbreak. We estimate that performing 1 multiplex test for every 1000 COVID-19 tests on symptomatic individuals could be sufficient to maintain surveillance of other respiratory viruses in the population and correct the observed SARS-CoV-2 percentage positivity.

Conclusions: This study showed that cocirculating respiratory viruses can distort SARS-CoV-2 surveillance. Correction of the positivity rate can be achieved by using multiplex polymerase chain reaction tests, and a low number of samples is sufficient to avoid bias in SARS-CoV-2 surveillance.

Citing Articles

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Redefining pandemic preparedness: Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases, workshop report.

Nunes M, Thommes E, Frohlich H, Flahault A, Arino J, Baguelin M Infect Dis Model. 2024; 9(2):501-518.

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The interactions of SARS-CoV-2 with cocirculating pathogens: Epidemiological implications and current knowledge gaps.

Wong A, Barrero Guevara L, Goult E, Briga M, Kramer S, Kovacevic A PLoS Pathog. 2023; 19(3):e1011167.

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