The Inability to Calculate Predictive Values: an Old Problem That Has Not Gone Away

Overview

Journal Med Sci Educ

Publisher Springer

Specialty Medical Education

Date 2021 Aug 30

PMID 34457725

Citations 1

Authors

Steven D Stovitz

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: Previous studies suggest that many physicians and medical trainees have trouble calculating the probability that a patient has a condition, also known as the predictive value.

Activity: Two questions from the medical literature were administered to medical students, residents (post-medical school), fellows (post-residency), and faculty physicians.

Results: Only 6% answered both questions correctly. Most commonly, the participants grossly overestimated the probability of disease.

Discussion: Physicians still struggle with the ability to calculate predictive values, a skill that affects all branches of medicine and will become more consequential as new tests are administered to patients at low risk for disease.

Citing Articles

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Assessments and the Importance of Calculating the Probability of Illness.

Stovitz S Med Sci Educ. 2020; 30(2):669-670.

PMID: 32328341 PMC: 7176373. DOI: 10.1007/s40670-020-00964-7.

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