Predictors of Death in Severe COVID-19 Patients at Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia: a Case-control Study

Introduction: as the number of new cases and death due to COVID-19 is increasing, understanding the characteristics of severe COVID-19 patients and identifying characteristics that lead to death is a key to make an informed decision. In Ethiopia, as of September 27 2020, a total of 72,700 cases and 1165 deaths were reported. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the determinants of death in severe COVID-19 patients admitted to millennium COVID-19 care center in Ethiopia.

Methods: a case-control study of 147 severe COVID-19 patients (49 deaths and 98 discharged alive cases) was conducted from August to September 2020. A comparison of underlying characteristics between cases (death) and controls (alive) was assessed using a chi-square test and an independent t-test with a p-value of <0.05 considered as having a statistically significant difference. Multivariable binary logistic regression was used to identify predictors of severe COVID-19 outcome (alive vs death) where adjusted odds ratio (AOR), 95% confidence interval (CIs) for AOR, and P-values were used for testing significance and interpretation of results.

Results: having diabetes mellitus (AOR= 3.257, 95%CI=1.348,7.867, p-value <0.001), fever (AOR=0.328, 95%CI= 0.123,0.878, p-value=0.027) and shortness of breath (AOR=4.034, 95%CI=1.481,10.988, p-value=0.006) were found to be significant predictors of death in severe COVID-19 patients.

Conclusion: the outcome of death in severe COVID-19 patients is found to be associated with exposures to being diabetic and having shortness of breath at admission. On the other hand, having a fever at admission was associated with a favorable outcome of being discharged alive.