Long-term Decrease in Asian Monsoon Rainfall and Abrupt Climate Change Events over the Past 6,700 Years

Overview

Journal Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

Specialty Science

Date 2021 Jul 20

PMID 34282014

Citations 10

Authors

Bao Yang

Chun Qin

Achim Brauning

Timothy J Osborn

Valerie Trouet

Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist

Jan Esper

Lea Schneider

Jussi Griessinger

Ulf Buntgen

Sergio Rossi

Guanghui Dong

Mi Yan

Liang Ning

Jianglin Wang

Xiaofeng Wang

Suming Wang

Jurg Luterbacher

Edward R Cook

Nils Chr Stenseth

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium-BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.

Citing Articles

Recent centennial drought on the Tibetan Plateau is outstanding within the past 3500 years.

Liu Y, Song H, An Z, Li Q, Leavitt S, Buntgen U Nat Commun. 2025; 16(1):1311.

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Persistent humid climate favored the Qin and Western Han Dynasties in China around 2,200 y ago.

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Sahara's surface transformation forced an abrupt hydroclimate decline and Neolithic culture transition in northern China.

Hou Y, Long H, Tsukamoto S, Lu Z, Chen J, Ibarra D Innovation (Camb). 2024; 5(1):100550.

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Mid-to-late Holocene climate variability in coastal East Asia and its impact on ancient Korean societies.

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