Monitoring Changes in COVID-19 Infection Using Wastewater-based Epidemiology: A South African Perspective

Monitoring of COVID-19 infections within communities via wastewater-based epidemiology could provide a cost-effective alternative to clinical testing. This approach, however, still requires improvement for its efficient application. In this paper, we present the use of wastewater-based epidemiology in monitoring COVID-19 infection dynamics in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa, focusing on four wastewater treatment plants for 14 weeks. The SARS-CoV-2 viral load in influent wastewater was determined using droplet digital PCR, and the number of people infected was estimated using published models as well as using a modified model to improve efficiency. On average, viral loads ranged between 0 and 2.73 × 10 copies/100 ml, 0-1.52 × 10 copies/100 ml, 3 × 10-7.32 × 10 copies/100 ml and 1.55 × 10-4.12 × 10 copies/100 ml in the four wastewater treatment plants studied. The peak in viral load corresponded to the reported COVID-19 infections within the districts where these catchments are located. In addition, we also observed that easing of lockdown restrictions by authorities corresponded with an increase in viral load in the untreated wastewater. Estimation of infection numbers based on the viral load showed that a higher number of people could potentially be infected, compared to the number of cases reported based on clinical testing. The findings reported in this paper contribute to the field of wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 surveillance, whilst highlighting some of the challenges associated with this approach, especially in developing countries.