Estimating the Prevalence of Definitive Chronic Kidney Disease in the Japanese General Population

Background: Most data on chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence has been based on single measurements of renal function and proteinuria. The aim was to determine the prevalence of CKD diagnosed by chronic proteinuria and/or reduced eGFR in a recent year in Japan.

Methods: In the main study, using a population-based cohort in Japan, the overall prevalence of CKD, defined as persistent positive proteinuria and/or eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m, was determined. Of 2,849,557 persons, 763,104 had data for eGFR and proteinuria in both 2014 and 2015. For estimating number of CKD cases in Japanese adults, a regional cohort data with age ranging 22-87 years (N = 22,037) was further applied to the analysis.

Results: Definitive CKD was present in 2.3-23.0% of men and 1.7-17.1% of women age from 40 to 74 years in the main cohort. The estimated prevalence of reduced eGFR and/or proteinuria in the baseline year alone was 15.7% in men and 13.6% in women; the prevalence of definitive CKD was 10.9% in men and 9.2% in women. The number of CKD cases based on a single-year test in Japanese adults over 20 years of age increased from 13.3 million to 14.8 million between 2005 and 2015.

Conclusions: Recent changes in prevalence of CKD seem to be mainly caused by an increase in Japan's elderly population. Although past reports may lead to overdiagnosis of CKD by a single-year test, the estimated number of definitive CKD was 10.2 million in 2015.