Heterogeneous Long-term Trajectories of Glycaemic Control in Type 1 Diabetes

Aims: We aimed to identify long-term HbA1c trajectories and examine associated characteristics in an observational, childhood-onset (<17 years) type 1 diabetes cohort.

Methods: Data are from the Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications study, comprising 405 participants with ≥2 of seven possible HbA1c measurements over follow-up (1988-2013) and available DNA (baseline mean diabetes duration 21 years, 53% men). HbA1c trajectories were estimated using latent class growth models. Baseline and change in participant characteristics were compared across trajectories.

Results: Five HbA1c trajectories were identified: low (51%), intermediate stable (22%), improved (19%), high stable (6%), and worsened (2%; not included in analyses). Age, diabetes duration, diabetes onset age, and sex did not differ across trajectories. Characteristics did not differ significantly between intermediate stable and low trajectories at baseline, though albumin excretion rate (AER, p = 0.0002) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, p = 0.001) worsened slightly more in intermediate stable over time. Improved and high stable trajectories had higher baseline LDL-c (p = 0.002 and 0.003, respectively). Improved trajectory increased median self-monitoring of blood glucose from <1 to 3.5 times/day (p < 0.0001) and had larger LDL-c improvement (p = 0.004) but greater worsening of AER (p < 0.0001) and eGFR (p < 0.0001) than low. The A allele of rs12970134 (near MC4R) was associated with improved (p = 0.0003) or high stable (p = 0.001) HbA1c trajectory, both patterns with high baseline HbA1c.

Conclusions: Long-term HbA1c trajectories were primarily associated with modifiable factors in this type 1 diabetes cohort. The intermediate stable pattern had a risk factor profile that suggests some protection against adverse metabolic effects of chronic hyperglycaemia, warranting further study.