A Clinically Practical Radiomics-clinical Combined Model Based on PET/CT Data and Nomogram Predicts EGFR Mutation in Lung Adenocarcinoma

Objectives: This study aims to develop a clinically practical model to predict EGFR mutation in lung adenocarcinoma patients according to radiomics signatures based on PET/CT and clinical risk factors.

Methods: This retrospective study included 583 lung adenocarcinoma patients, including 295 (50.60%) patients with EGFR mutation and 288 (49.40%) patients without EGFR mutation. The clinical risk factors associated with lung adenocarcinoma were collected at the same time. We developed PET/CT, CT, and PET radiomics models for the prediction of EGFR mutation using multivariate logistic regression analysis, respectively. We also constructed a combined PET/CT radiomics-clinical model by nomogram analysis. The diagnostic performance and clinical net benefit of this risk-scoring model were examined via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis while the clinical usefulness of this model was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: The ROC analysis showed predictive performance for the PET/CT radiomics model (AUC = 0.76), better than the PET model (AUC = 0.71, Delong test: Z = 3.03, p value = 0.002) and the CT model (AUC = 0.74, Delong test: Z = 1.66, p value = 0.098). Also, the PET/CT radiomics-clinical combined model has a better performance (AUC = 0.84) to predict EGFR mutation than the PET/CT radiomics model (AUC = 0.76, Delong test: D = 2.70, df = 790.81, p value < 0.001) or the clinical model (AUC = 0.81, Delong test: Z = 3.46, p value < 0.001).

Conclusions: We demonstrated that the combined PET/CT radiomics-clinical model has an advantage to predict EGFR mutation in lung adenocarcinoma.

Key Points: • Radiomics from lung tumor increase the efficiency of the prediction for EGFR mutation in clinical lung adenocarcinoma on PET/CT. • A radiomic nomogram was developed to predict EGFR mutation. • Combining PET/CT radiomics-clinical model has an advantage to predict EGFR mutation.