Levels of Economic Growth and Cross-province Spread of the COVID-19 in China

Background: After the first COVID-19 case detected on 8 December 2019 in Wuhan, the Provincial Capital of Hubei, the epidemic quickly spread throughout the whole country of China. Low developmental levels are often associated with infectious disease epidemic, this study attempted to test this notion with COVID-19 data.

Methods: Data by province from 8 December 2019 to 16 February 2020 were analysed using regression method. Outcomes were days from the first COVID-19 case in the origin of Hubei Province to the date when case was first detected in a destination province, and cumulative number of confirmed cases. Provincial gross domestic products (GDPs) were used to predict the outcomes while considering spatial distance and population density.

Results: Of the total 70 548 COVID-19 cases in all 31 provinces, 58 182 (82.5%) were detected in Hubei and 12 366 (17.5%) in other destination provinces. Regression analysis of data from the 30 provinces indicated that GDP was negatively associated with days of virus spreading (β=-0.2950, p<0.10) and positively associated with cumulative cases (β=97.8709, p<0.01) after controlling for spatial distance. The relationships were reversed with β=0.1287 (p<0.01) for days and β=-54.3756 (p<0.01) for cumulative cases after weighing in population density and controlling for spatial distance.

Conclusion: Higher levels of developmental is a risk factor for cross-province spread of COVID-19. This study adds new data to literature regarding the role of economic growth in facilitating spatial spreading of infectious diseases, and provides timely data informing antiepidemic strategies and developmental plan to balance economic growth and people's health.