Utility of Visual Coronary Artery Calcification on Non-cardiac Gated Thoracic CT in Predicting Clinical Severity and Outcome in COVID-19

Background: Assessment of visual-coronary artery calcification on non-cardiac gated CT in COVID-19 patients could provide an objective approach to rapidly identify and triage clinically severe patients for early hospital admission to avert worse prognosis.

Purpose: To ascertain the role of semi-quantitative scoring in visual-coronary artery calcification score (V-CACS) for predicting the clinical severity and outcome in patients with COVID-19.

Materials And Methods: With institutional review board approval this study included 67 COVID-19 confirmed patients who underwent non-cardiac gated CT chest in an inpatient setting. Two blinded radiologist (Radiologist-1 &2) assessed the V-CACS, CT Chest severity score (CT-SS). The clinical data including the requirement for oxygen support, assisted ventilation, ICU admission and outcome was assessed, and patients were clinically subdivided depending on clinical severity. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors. ROC curves analysis is performed for the assessment of performance and Pearson correlation were performed to looks for the associations.

Results: V-CACS cut off value of 3 (82.67% sensitivity and 54.55% specificity; AUC 0.75) and CT-SS with a cut off value of 21.5 (95.7% sensitivity and 63.6% specificity; AUC 0.87) are independent predictors for clinical severity and also the need for ICU admission or assisted ventilation. The pooling of both CT-SS and V-CACS (82.67% sensitivity and 86.4% specificity; AUC 0.92) are more reliable in terms of predicting the primary outcome of COVID-19 patients. On regression analysis, V-CACS and CT-SS are individual independent predictors of clinical severity in COVID-19 (Odds ratio, 1.72; 95% CI, 0.99-2.98; p = 0.05 and Odds ratio, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.08-1.39; p = 0.001 respectively). The area under the curve (AUC) for pooled V-CACS and CT-SS was 0.96 (95% CI 0.84-0.98) which correctly predicted 82.1% cases.

Conclusion: Logistic regression model using pooled Visual-Coronary artery calcification score and CT Chest severity score in non-cardiac gated CT can predict clinical severity and outcome in patients with COVID-19.