Long-term Risk of Subsequent Cancer Incidence Among Hereditary and Nonhereditary Retinoblastoma Survivors

Background: Increased sarcoma and melanoma risks after hereditary retinoblastoma are well established, whereas less is known about epithelial subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) and risks for multiple (≥2) SMNs.

Methods: Leveraging long-term follow-up and detailed histologic information, we quantified incident SMN risk among 1128 hereditary and 924 nonhereditary retinoblastoma survivors (diagnosed 1914-2006; follow-up through 2016). Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) compared cancer risk after retinoblastoma relative to the general population. We estimated cumulative incidence accounting for competing risk of death.

Results: Hereditary survivors had statistically significantly increased SMN risk (N = 239; SIR = 11.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] 10.4-13.5), with SIRs >80-fold for sarcomas, nasal cavity tumours and pineoblastoma. Significantly increased risks were also observed for melanoma and central nervous system, oral cavity and breast SMNs (SIRs = 3.1-17), but not the uterus, kidney, lung, bladder, pancreas or other types. Cumulative incidence 50 years following hereditary retinoblastoma was 33.1% (95% CI 29.0-37.2) for a first SMN and 6.0% (95% CI 3.8-8.2) for a second SMN. SMN risk was not increased after nonhereditary retinoblastoma (N = 25; SIR = 0.8; 95% CI 0.5-1.2).

Conclusion: Beyond the established sarcoma and melanoma risks after hereditary retinoblastoma, we demonstrate increased risk for a more limited number of epithelial malignancies than previously suggested. Cumulative incidence estimates emphasise long-term SMN burden after hereditary retinoblastoma.