The Impact of Antenatal Care on Under-five Mortality in Ethiopia: a Difference-in-differences Analysis

Background: Sub-Saharan Africa, as opposed to other regions, has the highest under-five mortality rates yet makes the least improvement in reducing under-five mortality. Despite the decline, Ethiopia is among the top ten countries contributing the most to global under-five mortalities. This article examines the impact of the number of antenatal care and the timing of first antenatal care on child health outcomes. We specifically investigated if the utilization of antenatal care services positively affects the reduction of under-five mortality.

Methods: We employ a difference-in-differences design with propensity score matching to identify direct causal effects of antenatal care on under-five mortality based on the Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey data of 2011 and 2016. Our sample includes 22 295 women between the ages of 14-49 who had antenatal care visits at different times before delivery.

Results: The study revealed 1 481 cases of reported under-five mortality. 99.0% of that under-five mortality cases are women who had less than eight antenatal care visits, while only 1% of that is by women who had eight or more antenatal care visits. Antenatal care visit decreases the likelihood of under-five mortality in Ethiopia by 45.2% (CI = 19.2-71.3%, P-value < 0.001) while the timing of first antenatal care within the first trimester decreases the likelihood of under-five mortality by 10% (CI = 5.7-15.6%, P-value < 0.001).

Conclusions: To achieve a significant reduction in the under-five mortality rate, Intervention programs that encourages more antenatal care visits should be considered. This will improve child survival and help in attaining Sustainable Development Goal targets.