The Sleep Apnea-Specific Pulse-Rate Response Predicts Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality

Randomized controlled trials have been unable to detect a cardiovascular benefit of continuous positive airway pressure in unselected patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). We hypothesize that deleterious cardiovascular outcomes are concentrated in a subgroup of patients with a heightened pulse-rate response to apneas and hypopneas (ΔHR). We measured the ΔHR in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) ( = 1,395) and the SHHS (Sleep Heart Health Study) ( = 4,575). MESA data were used to determine the functional form of the association between the ΔHR and subclinical cardiovascular biomarkers, whereas primary analyses tested the association of the ΔHR with nonfatal or fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in longitudinal data from the SHHS. In the MESA, U-shaped relationships were observed between subclinical CVD biomarkers (coronary artery calcium, NT-proBNP [N-terminal prohormone BNP], and Framingham risk score) and the ΔHR; notably, a high ΔHR (upper quartile) was associated with elevated biomarker scores compared with a midrange ΔHR (25th-75th centiles). In the SHHS, individuals with a high ΔHR compared with a midrange ΔHR were at increased risk of nonfatal or fatal CVD and all-cause mortality (nonfatal adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval (CI)], 1.60 [1.28-2.00]; fatal adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI], 1.68 [1.22-2.30]; all-cause adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI], 1.29 [1.07-1.55]). The risk associated with a high ΔHR was particularly high in those with a substantial hypoxic burden (nonfatal, 1.93 [1.36-2.73]; fatal, 3.50 [2.15-5.71]; all-cause, 1.84 [1.40-2.40]) and was exclusively observed in nonsleepy individuals. Individuals with OSA who demonstrate an elevated ΔHR are at increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. This study identifies a prognostic biomarker for OSA that appears useful for risk stratification and patient selection for future clinical trials.