Self-reported Physical Activity and Atrial Fibrillation Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background: Although physical activity (PA) is an important component of cardiovascular disease prevention and treatment, its role in atrial fibrillation (AF) risk is less well established.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to systematically summarize the evidence pertaining to the relationship of PA and risk of AF.

Methods: We searched the PubMed and Embase databases for prospective cohort studies reporting the risk of AF associated with a specific PA volume through March 2020. From each study, we extracted the risk associated with a given PA level, in comparison with insufficiently active ("inactive") individuals. The reported risk was normalized to metabolic equivalent of task (MET)-minutes per week. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to compare AF risk between those who met and those who did not meet PA recommendations (450 MET-minutes per week), and a dose-response analysis between the level of PA and the risk of AF was performed.

Results: Fifteen studies reporting data from 1,464,539 individuals (median age 55.3 years; 51.7% female) were included. Individuals achieving guideline-recommended level of PA had a significantly lower risk of AF (hazard ratio 0.94; 95% confidence interval 0.90-0.97; P = .001). Dose-response analysis showed that PA levels up to 1900 MET-minutes per week were associated with a lower risk of AF, with less certainty beyond that level.

Conclusion: PA at guideline-recommended levels and above are associated with a significantly lower AF risk. However, at 2000 MET-minutes per week and beyond, the benefit is less clear.