Prediction of Survival and Recurrence Patterns by Machine Learning in Gastric Cancer Cases Undergoing Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy

Purpose: Radical surgery is the most important treatment modality in gastric cancer. Preoperative or postoperative radiation therapy (RT) and perioperative chemotherapy are the treatment options that should be added to surgery. This study aimed to evaluate the overall survival (OS) and recurrence patterns by machine learning in gastric cancer cases undergoing RT.

Methods And Materials: Between 2012 and 2019, the OS and recurrence patterns of 75 gastric cancer cases receiving RT ± chemotherapy at the Department of Radiation Oncology were evaluated by machine learning. Logistic regression, multilayer perceptron, XGBoost, support vector classification, random forest, and Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB) algorithms were used to predict OS, hematogenous distant metastases, and peritoneal metastases. After the correlation analysis, the backward feature selection was performed as the variable selection method, and the variables with values less than .005 were selected.

Results: Over the median 23-month follow-up, recurrence was seen in 33 cases, and 36 patients died. The median OS was 23 (min: 7; max: 82) months, and the disease-free survival was 18 (min: 5, max: 80) months. The most common recurrence pattern was hematogenous distant metastasis, followed by peritoneal metastasis. In this study, the most successful algorithms in the prediction of OS, distant metastases, and peritoneal metastases were found to be GNB with an accuracy of 81% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65-0.97, area under the curve [AUC]: 0.89), XGBoost with 86% accuracy (95% CI, 0.74-0.97, AUC: 0.86), and random forest with 97% accuracy (95% CI, 0.92-1.00, AUC: 0.97), respectively.

Conclusions: In gastric cancer, GNB, XGBoost, and random forest algorithms were determined to be the most successful algorithms for predicting OS, distant metastases, and peritoneal metastases, respectively. To determine the most accurate algorithm and perhaps make personalized treatments applicable, more precise machine learning studies are needed with an increased number of cases in the coming years.